THE TAKE
.@DannyParkins: “Justin Herbert’s a top five quarterback in the NFL. The situation around Herbert is not top 5.”
@getnickwri…
BOLDNESS
35/100
GRADE
52/100
PLAYERS / TEAMS
Justin Herbert
GRADING CRITERIA
TRUE if Herbert ranks top-5 among QBs by major metrics (PFF grade, EPA/play, QBR, or Pro Bowl/All-Pro recognition) for the 2025 season, AND the Chargers finish outside top-5 in supporting metrics (offensive line ranking, skill position quality, win total relative to QB talent). Partially TRUE if only one of the two claims holds.
vagueunfalsifiable
OUTCOME
PARTIALLY TRUEHerbert did not rank as a top-5 QB by major metrics in 2025 — he ranked 12th-13th in QBR/ESPN metrics and was placed 8th by PFF in preseason tier rankings, with his stats (11th in passing yards, 12th in QBR) clearly outside the top 5. The supporting cast/organizational situation claim holds up better: the Chargers' offensive line ranked among the NFL's worst (only the Raiders and Browns were graded lower by PFF), their run game was disrupted by Omarion Hampton's ankle injury, and they lost in the Wild Card round to the Patriots 3-16. The team went 11-6 but was eliminated in the first round, consistent with a mismatch between QB talent and supporting cast — though the Chargers' record actually looks decent on paper.