THE TAKE
With 4 weeks left... Here's where I think the NBA MVP race sits:1- SGA2- Luka3- Wemby4- Jokic5- CadeLuka vs Wemby is thisclose and could flip multiple times over last month. But SGA is going to (and deserves to) win, and Luka has clearly played his way into the Top 3.
BOLDNESS
30/100
GRADE
58/100
PLAYERS / TEAMS
SGALukaWemby
GRADING CRITERIA
TRUE IF
(1) SGA wins the 2025-26 NBA MVP award, AND (2) Luka Doncic finishes in the top 3 of MVP voting. Take is PARTIALLY TRUE if SGA wins but Luka does not finish top 3, or if Luka finishes top 3 but SGA does not win. Take is
FALSE IF
SGA does not win MVP.
flip risk
OUTCOME
PARTIALLY TRUESGA did win the 2025-26 NBA MVP award for the second consecutive year, confirming the core prediction. However, the final MVP voting order was 1-SGA, 2-Jokić, 3-Wembanyama, 4-Luka, 5-Cade — meaning Luka finished 4th, not in the top 3, which invalidates the second condition for a TRUE verdict. Nick Wright had Luka at #2 and Jokić at #4, but the actual results swapped them, with Jokić edging Wembanyama for 2nd and Luka falling outside the top 3 due to injury.