THE TAKE
Thursday Herd
- Sam Darnold is a top 10 QB in the NFL and it’s not debatable anymore, right?
- Ian O’Connor on the case for Bill Belichick as a Hall of Famer despite Spygate
BOLDNESS
62/100
GRADE
62/100
PLAYERS / TEAMS
Sam Darnold
GRADING CRITERIA
TRUE IF
at least 3 of the following are met by end of 2025-26 season: (1) Darnold finishes top 10 in NFL passer rating among qualified starters, (2) Darnold finishes top 10 in QBR among qualified starters, (3) Darnold receives at least one Pro Bowl selection or All-Pro vote, (4) Darnold leads his team to a playoff berth with a winning record.
FALSE IF
he finishes outside top 12 in major QB efficiency metrics or loses starting role.
recency biashot takevague
OUTCOME
PARTIALLY TRUEDarnold had a strong 2025 season with the Seattle Seahawks, posting a 99.1 passer rating, 14-3 record, earning a second consecutive Pro Bowl selection, and leading Seattle to a Super Bowl LX victory. However, his QBR came in at 56.9 (19th per ESPN) and his passer rating of 99.1, while solid, was not firmly top-10 by most efficiency metrics — his completion percentage ranked 15th leaguewide. Three of the four resolution criteria appear met (Pro Bowl selection, playoff berth with winning record, and arguably top-10 passer rating), but the 'not debatable' framing overstates the case — analysts in early 2026 are still actively debating whether he belongs in the top 10.