THE TAKE
"I totally believe, production-wise, he'll play very similar to what Sam did last year." (predicting JJ McCarthy would match Sam Darnold's 2024 production)
BOLDNESS
62/100
GRADE
8/100
PLAYERS / TEAMS
JJ McCarthySam Darnold
GRADING CRITERIA
JJ McCarthy must finish the 2025 NFL regular season with passing stats within approximately 10-15% of Sam Darnold's 2024 numbers across key categories: Darnold threw for 4,319 yards, 35 TDs, and 12 INTs with a 66.0% completion rate and a 102.5 passer rating. McCarthy would need to hit roughly 3,670+ passing yards, 30+ TDs, 14 or fewer INTs, and a passer rating above 87 to be considered a match in production. Take is TRUE if McCarthy meets at least 3 of these 4 benchmarks.
bold callflip riskrecency bias
OUTCOME
CONFIRMED FALSEJJ McCarthy played only 10 games in the 2025 season due to injuries (high ankle sprain, concussion), finishing with just 1,632 passing yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTs, and a 57.6% completion rate — nowhere near Darnold's 2024 benchmark of 4,319 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs, and 66.0% completion rate. McCarthy failed to meet even one of the four benchmarks set for the prediction to be TRUE: he fell massively short on yardage, TDs, completion rate, and likely passer rating. His PFF grade of 61.8 ranked 35th among 43 qualified QBs.