Brazil did win their group (Group C, containing Morocco ranked 11th and Scotland ranked 36th, with Morocco being a legitimate top-15 side) and Carlo Ancelotti — widely regarded as the most decorated manager in the tournament — was their coach, lending credibility to both supporting claims. However, Brazil was eliminated in the Round of 16 by Norway (2-1) on July 5, 2026, their earliest exit since 1990, which severely undermines the 10% win probability argument. The core claim that Brazil was undervalued at 10% odds proved incorrect — the market had them at roughly 10-11% anyway (around +800 to +850), making the 'unfairly maligned' framing questionable, and the team ultimately failed to justify even those odds.