THE TAKE
Don’t get me wrong, if the vote was today Baker would win it & it’d be close to unanimous, justifiably.
But when the odds post in the morning, Patrick Mahomes will be the MVP favorite, with Baker a close second.
BOLDNESS
45/100
GRADE
52/100
PLAYERS / TEAMS
Baker MayfieldPatrick Mahomes
GRADING CRITERIA
TRUE IF
major sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, etc.) post Patrick Mahomes as the outright NFL MVP odds favorite on the morning of October 15, 2025, with Baker Mayfield listed second.
FALSE IF
Baker Mayfield opens as the favorite, or if Mahomes is not listed ahead of Mayfield in the odds.
recency biasflip risk
OUTCOME
PARTIALLY TRUENick Wright's take was made on October 14, 2025, after Week 6. By October 15, 2025, Mahomes had indeed jumped to the MVP betting favorite at BetMGM (+200), leapfrogging Josh Allen (+275) after the Bills lost on Monday Night Football. However, Baker Mayfield was third (+350), not second — Allen was still listed above Mayfield despite falling from the top spot. The Mahomes-as-favorite part was correct, but Mayfield as a 'close second' was off, as Allen remained between them.